'Dega': Favorites, Dark Horses, et al...

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Dega a 'crap shoot', but there are some good plays
Earnhardt, Biffle, Burton the most consistent recently
By Dan Beaver, Special to NASCAR.COM
April 21, 2010
10:55 AM EDT

Fantasy owners will wear their lucky quarters smooth this week while trying to set up their lineup for the Aaron's 499.

In the best of circumstances, a race on the restrictor-plate superspeedways is a crap shoot as the whim of the draft can drop a driver from the lead to outside the top 20 in one circuit around the track. In the worst of circumstances, your entire roster can be wiped out in the "Big One" that has been known to eliminate as much half of the field at Talladega in a single incident.

Handicapping a race on the plate tracks has always been difficult, but NASCAR has made it virtually impossible with the introduction of a new rule this year that allows for up to three green-white-checkered finishes.

The new rule was put to the test immediately in the season-opening Daytona 500 on NASCAR's other restrictor-plate superspeedway. That race featured three cautions in the final laps and two attempts at a green-white-checkered finish. The action got started when Elliott Sadler wiggled on Lap 193 of the scheduled 200 and collected Ryan Newman and Travis Kvapil. That set up the first extra inning restart and another caution immediately flew when Bill Elliott cut a tire and crashed with Joey Logano and Boris Said.

On the following restart, Jeff Gordon nudged Kasey Kahne into a spin that collected Robert Richardson. For good measure, there was even a final crash during the run to the checkers that involved both Jeff and Robby Gordon.

Racing is a zero sum game, however. There are as many gainers as losers and someone will be credited with first through fifth. On Lap 193 before the rash of cautions, the No. 24 was running comfortably in eighth. Jamie McMurray was immediately ahead of Gordon in seventh. With all of his trouble, Gordon finished 26th; McMurray slalomed through the field to win.

The Favorites

Picking a favorite at Talladega is virtually impossible. Once practically unstoppable at 'Dega, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has earned only a single top-five in his past 10 starts there while drivers like Brad Keselowski, Marcos Ambrose and Scott Speed finished that well last year. Still, one of the factors you should consider each time the series rolls onto a plate track is the amount of time a driver spends in the lead pack. The theory is that the more time one spends with the leaders, the fewer drivers there are ahead of him to make a mistake -- and the Pied Piper at Talladega continues to be Earnhardt. Despite relatively few top-fives, he's spent nearly 52 percent of his time in the top 10 during the past three years and that will eventually pay big dividends like it did last spring when he finished second to Keselowski.

The result of this recent unpredictability is that only one driver enters the weekend with more than two consecutive Talladega top-10s. It's not the plate king Earnhardt, it's not four-time champ Johnson and it's not one of the drivers with the most wins in the past two years -- Kyle Busch. It's Mr. Consistency, Jeff Burton. He's been successful with an opposing strategy from Earnhardt's. Burton likes to stay out of trouble for most of the afternoon and press the gas when it matters most. In terms of laps in the top 10 at Talladega, Burton ranks only 11th with 34 percent, but fantasy games pay points for finishing results and not raw strength.

Greg Biffle is one of only four drivers who swept the top 10 at Talladega last year and that fact probably comes as no surprise. The other two drivers who finished that well, however, might astonish you. Along with his victory in the spring, Keselowski finished eighth in the fall. Last year's rookie of the year, Logano, finished ninth in the spring and was third in the fall. Other than Earnhardt with a second and 11th, no one else even came close to posting strong back-to-back runs. Each of these wheel men deserves attention, but the lack of consistency among all other drivers suggests the winning strategy this week will be to spread your money around equally among marquee names and dark horses.

Dark Horses

In many ways, the entire field could be classified as a dark horse. No one expected Bobby Labonte to finish 10th in the Amp Energy 500 last fall while racing for the lightly-funded Racer's Group.

Before last fall's Talladega race, no one was paying particular attention to McMurray either. He hadn't scored a top-10 on a plate track in eight attempts, but he claimed the trophy that afternoon and enters the Aaron's 499 with back-to-back victories on this track type. Biffle finished fourth at Talladega last fall and was third in the Daytona 500, but those are the only two drivers with back-to-back top-10s on plate tracks.

The upside is that plate tracks give you the opportunity to start some fresh faces. For all of his struggles on other tracks, Elliott Sadler has been very successful at Talladega and Daytona in recent years. He stumbled at Daytona this year after getting involved in a late-race incident, but four of his previous five efforts on this track type ended in top-10s.

David Ragan is another driver who has been largely overlooked this season but who should be considered this weekend. From the spring 2008 Talladega race through the 2009 Daytona 500, he logged four consecutive plate results of third through sixth. His last four attempts have not been nearly as strong with runs of 12th through 17th, but that still means he's been able to stay out of trouble in eight consecutive races. A little luck and track position during the final run could make him this week's best value.

Brian Vickers enters the weekend with four consecutive plate track top-15s and seven such finishes in his past nine races on this track type. He scored a controversial victory at Talladega in 2006, so he knows how to get to Victory Lane and Toyota makes enough horsepower to keep him in the lead pack.

Fantasy Power Ranking
Restrictor-plate superspeedways (past three years)
Pos.   Driver   PA*       Pos.   Driver   PA*       Pos.   Driver   PA*
1.   Kyle Busch   8.12       16.   Elliott Sadler   16.22       31.   Johnny Sauter   24.53
2.   Dale Earnhardt Jr.   9.67       17.   Martin Truex Jr.   16.49       32.   Marcos Ambrose   24.70
3.   Denny Hamlin   10.43       18.   Clint Bowyer   16.52       33.   Bobby Labonte   25.08
4.   Jeff Gordon   11.33       19.   Ryan Newman   17.21       34.   David Gilliland   25.44
5.   Tony Stewart   12.46       20.   David Stremme   17.78       35.   Robby Gordon   27.30
6.   David Ragan   13.02       21.   Carl Edwards   18.09       36.   A.J. Allmendinger   27.49
7.   Jimmie Johnson   13.11       22.   Joey Logano   18.13       37.   Sam Hornish Jr.   27.51
8.   Kurt Busch   13.60       23.   Brad Keselowski   19.48       38.   Scott Speed   27.62
9.   Matt Kenseth   14.00       24.   Greg Biffle   20.33       39.   Regan Smith   28.25
10.   Kevin Harvick   14.57       25.   Jamie McMurray   20.35       40.   Joe Nemechek   28.38
11.   Brian Vickers   15.34       26.   Travis Kvapil   20.41       41.   Terry Cook   28.75
12.   Juan Montoya   15.51       27.   David Reutimann   22.71       42.   Bill Elliott   30.31
13.   Jeff Burton   15.90       28.   Reed Sorenson   23.00       43.   Michael McDowell   31.92
14.   Kasey Kahne   16.01       29.   Paul Menard   23.80       44.   Max Papis   34.62
15.   Mark Martin   16.08       30.   Dave Blaney   24.46       45.   Mike Bliss   38.82

* The Power Average is the average finish during the past three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second-most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. A driver's recent record in the support series also is factored in, as is his Average Running Position as provided by NASCAR Statistical Services. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).
• The restrictor-plate superspeedways are Talladega and Daytona.


Courtesy of:   nascar.com

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Big Ones, big finishes, big names at Talladega
By NASCAR.COM
April 22, 2010
11:19 AM EDT




Race No. 9 -- Aaron's 499 from Talladega Superspeedway (1 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX). Green at 1:20 p.m. ET.

1 -- Active drivers who have won a Cup championship who have not won a plate race: Kurt Busch. Busch has finished third four times at Talladega and has five top-10s in eight races there driving the No. 2 car. But he's crashed out of two of the past four races at 'Dega. Still, on Tony Stewart has scored more points in the past 10 plate races.

1 -- Active drivers who have made more than two starts at Talladega without a DNF: Kevin Harvick has three top-fives, seven top-10s and 12 lead-lap finishes among his 18 races. He hasn't finished better than 20th in the past five races there, however.

3 -- Top-five finishes for Hendrick Motorsports in plate races the past two years, encompassing 36 starts. Only one has come at Talladega -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished second in April 2009. Hendrick's average finish during that time is 22nd. However, its 18 plate victories (10 at Talladega) are the most of any team

3 -- Consecutive top-10 finishes for Jeff Burton at Talladega, the longest current streak. Burton is one of four drivers to have posted top-10s in both 'Dega races last year: Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano.

3 -- Races in the past five at Talladega won from a starting position of 22nd or worse. Only three times in the past 22 races there has the winner started on the front row, including one from the pole -- Jeff Gordon in April 2007. He started 34th that October in completing the most recent season sweep. Gordon also owns the worst starting position of any winner -- 36th in April '00.

4 -- Victories for Jeff Gordon in the past 12 races at Talladega; he also has four finishes of 36th or worse during that span, including three DNFs (crashes). Gordon hasn't finished better than 19th in his past four races there.

4 -- DNFs for Kyle Busch in his first six starts at Talladega, including three for crashes, all in the No. 5 car of Hendrick Motorsports. Since, he has three top-15 finishes in four races, including his only top-10 -- a victory in his first start at 'Dega in the No. 18 of Joe Gibbs Racing.

5 -- Races in the past nine at Talladega won with a last-lap pass, including Brad Keselowski's victory in April 2009. He became the first driver in series history whose first career lap led was to win the race. He is one of four drivers to win at 'Dega with only one lap led: Ernie Irvan (May 1993), Dale Jarrett (October 2005), Jeff Gordon (Oct. '07).

10 -- Drivers to post their first career victory at Talladega: Richard Brickhouse (1969, first race at 'Dega), Dick Brooks ('73), Lennie Pond ('78), Ron Bouchard ('81), Bobby Hillin Jr. ('86), Davey Allison ('87), Phil Parsons ('88), Ken Schrader ('88), Brian Vickers (2006), Brad Keselowski ('09). Only Allison, Schrader and Vickers have other Cup victories to their credit. Allison is the only one with multiple 'Dega victories, with three.


11 -- Drivers entered in this week's race who crashed out in their first start at Talladega: A.J. Allmendinger, Dave Blaney, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Kyle Busch, Robby Gordon, Travis Kvapil, Bobby Labonte, Paul Menard, Martin Treux Jr., Michael Waltrip.

14 -- Consecutive races at Talladega in which Elliott Sadler has led, the longest current streak. Only four times during that stretch has he led double-digit laps. He's posted two of his four top-10s -- in 21 starts at the track -- in the past three races.

18 -- Victories by Chevrolet in the past 22 races at Talladega, but only one in the past four -- Toyota swept the 2008 season and Ford won in November '09.

27 -- Cars involved in a Lap 4 crash at Talladega in April 2003, the biggest Big One in track history. The average of nine Big Ones is 17 cars.

28 -- Leaders at Talladega in October 2008, a Cup Series record. Only seven drivers led 10 or more laps, with winner Tony Stewart leading the way with 24. There were 64 lead changes in the race.

188.354 -- Highest average race speed, in mph, at Talladega, set by Mark Martin in May 1997, an all-time NASCAR record.

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Top five has been far from top notch recently at 'Dega
By Sporting News Wire Service
April 23, 2010
10:43 AM EDT

Here's a look at the top five drivers in the Sprint Cup Series standings and five drivers to watch in Sunday's Aaron's 499 (1 p.m. ET on FOX). All statistical references are for Cup races at Talladega Superspeedway unless otherwise indicated. Driver Rating is based on the past 10 races at the track.

The top five

1. Jimmie Johnson, 82.7 Driver Rating -- Johnson has more DNFs -- six -- at Talladega than at any other track. He fell nine laps short of completing last year's Aaron's 499 before getting caught up in a 10-car mess. Johnson's one victory came in May 2006.

2. Matt Kenseth, 85.7 -- Kenseth is winless in 20 starts with six top-10s. He is experiencing his worst stretch at the track -- six consecutive finishes outside the top 10.

3. Greg Biffle, 68.4 -- Biffle finished seventh and fourth last year for his first top-10s in 14 starts. In his previous six starts, Biffle had five DNFs, four for crashes. None of the current Roush drivers has a victory at Talladega.

4. Kevin Harvick, 74.7 -- Harvick holds a remarkable distinction: No Cup driver in the 81-race history of Talladega has started more races than Harvick without a DNF. The next highest is seven by John Sears. Harvick has seven top-10s but none in the past five, during which his best finish is 20th.

5. Jeff Gordon, 87.1 -- Gordon has six victories and 16 top-10s (13 in the top five) in 34 starts. But since winning both races in 2007, he has fallen on hard times with finishes of 19th, 38th, 37th and 20th. That ties for his longest stretch without a top-10 (his first four races).

Five to watch

9. Kurt Busch, 85.6 -- Among drivers with more than two starts (Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano), Busch has the best average finish at 13.1. He has finished third four times and has 12 top-10s in 18 starts. He often is referred to as the best plate racer without a superspeedway victory.

11. Denny Hamlin, 93.4 -- Hamlin is the hottest driver in the series, with victories in two of the past three races, including Monday at Texas. He is winless at Talladega in eight starts with two top-fives. His 21.2 average finish at Talladega is his third worst, trailing only Daytona (23.0) and Dover (25.1).


15. Carl Edwards, 67.6 -- Edwards has more DNFs (four) than top-10s (three) in 11 races. The three top-10s came consecutively, but since the start of the 2007 season, Edwards has a best finish of 14th and three DNFs, including his famous crash a year ago in the final 100 or so yards before the finish line. He crashed Monday at Texas and fell seven spots to 15th in the standings. He can ill-afford back-to-back crashes.

21. Jamie McMurray, 84.5 -- McMurray has won the previous two races on restrictor-plate tracks, and three of his four career Cup victories are on superspeedways. His victory this past fall at Talladega ended a run of three DNFs for crashes in six races. In fact, in last year's Aaron's 499, McMurray completed six laps before crashing and finishing 42nd. In other words, anything can happen at Talladega.

25. Brad Keselowski, 94.2 -- Last year's Aaron's 499 put Keselowski on the map. He held his line -- a lesson he learned from Regan Smith's "loss" at Talladega in 2008 -- and sent Edwards flying, when Edwards tried to block him. He followed his victory with an eighth-place finish in November. Talladega is the only track on which Keselowski has two top-10s in his 25 career Cup starts.

Footnote

No two drivers have been more dominant in the past 20 Cup Series races than Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin. Hamlin's victory at Texas was the 10th of his career, and half have come in the past 20 races. The two have won five of the first eight races this season, three by Johnson.

Who's Hot / Who's Not

Hot
• Jimmie Johnson in the only driver to score five top-five finishes in the first eight races.
• Greg Biffle is the only driver to post top-10 finishes in seven of the eight races.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished 15th or better in the past five races.
• Four drivers have ranked in the top 12 in points after each race this season: Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth.
• Jimmie Johnson leads Matt Kenseth by 108 points, the largest margin this season.

Not
• Sam Hornish Jr. has not posted a top-10 finish in his past 18 races; he has finished 34th or worse in three Talladega races.
• Elliott Sadler has just one top-10 in his past 17 races -- ninth at Talladega in November 2009; his best finish this season is 18th.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished 31st or worse in his past five races at Talladega.
• Mark Martin has one top-10 in his past seven races at Talladega; he has five finishes of 28th or worse during that stretch, including three DNFs for crashes (both races in 2009).
• David Reutimann was ninth in points one year ago and now is 30th; he's finished 20th or worse in his six Talladega starts.
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Courtesy of:nascar.com