Re: Darlington: Top 5, and 5 to watch..

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Darlington has all makings of Johnson, Gordon scrum
By Dan Beaver, Special to NASCAR.COM
May 5, 2010
10:59 AM EDT

This week, weakness may well be your strength.

Darlington Raceway has a tendency to separate the fainthearted from the racers and it did not earn the nickname "The Track Too Tough to Tame" without reason. Its very nature will help you select a profitable roster. This track is not for the faint of heart. With an ideal groove that is located about 2 feet outside of the track, drivers have to settle for the second-best way around the course, which is 1 inch from the retaining wall.


Drivers who misjudge once usually miss the groove multiple times and fall back through the pack. Drivers who succeed go on to have very profitable careers.

Running well at Darlington requires precision and that is typically earned only by logging laps on this rough old track. As tough as she can be, however, the Lady in Black is often predictable; and when a driver wins her affection, he develops a long-term relationship. This week, six drivers enter the weekend with at least four consecutive top-15s and one other driver has a worst result of only 16th during that span.

Those racers should anchor your Showtime Southern 500 roster.

The Favorites

If we could predict that the final caution would wave with at least 10 laps remaining, Jeff Gordon would be an overwhelming favorite to win. He enters the weekend with a six-race, top-five Darlington streak to his credit and won as recently as 2007. With seven previous victories and top-fives in 17 of 29 starts, this is easily one of his favorite tracks and even though he's been snakebit by late-race restarts during the past two months, he still has great odds of breaking his 39-race losing streak.

The battle that has been heating up between Gordon and Jimmie Johnson will continue this week after they found themselves on different plots of real estate at Richmond. Gordon ran in the top-five all race long, while Johnson lagged behind in the second half of the top 10; but this week, both of them will contend for the victory. Johnson swept Victory Lane at Darlington in 2004 -- the last year this track hosted two races -- and he's almost never stumbled. Darlington is supposed to be difficult on rookies, but Johnson finished sixth in his inaugural appearance in '02 and has earned top-10s in all but two events there. One of these was a 13th in '08, but that still gives him an eight-race, top-15 streak entering this weekend.

Denny Hamlin's sore knee does not seem to be hampering his efforts much and there is no better showcase for his toughness than Darlington. Like Johnson, he immediately took to this track with a 10th-place finish in his rookie season. The next year, he finished second to Gordon in 2007. In four starts, he never has finished worse than 13th and with two victories in his past five efforts of this season, he could match Johnson's league-leading three victories without breaking a sweat.

Matt Kenseth enters the weekend with four consecutive top-10s, but we can't quite make him a favorite this week because his four efforts prior to that were all outside that mark. His relationship with this track has been stormy during his career -- he crashed out of his first attempt in 1999 and during the next 12 efforts he logged only three top-10s. His recent success, however, trumps those early struggles and if he shows any sign of strength in practice, he should be activated.



Jeff Burton is consistent everywhere he goes and Darlington is no exception. His past four attempts on this track have ended in a very narrow band of results from ninth through 12th; his eight efforts prior to that ended in six results of sixth through 13th and there is every reason to believe he will cross the finish line in that same range Saturday night. Often, fantasy owners are willing to give up raw power for reliability and that never has been truer than at Darlington, where a single slip of the wheel can send a driver into the SAFER barrier and then to the garage. Racers who have proven to keep their cars intact are worth their weight in fantasy gold.

Underdogs

Martin Truex Jr. had one of his best runs last week at Richmond with a car capable of winning. He settled for seventh in the final rundown, but his faithful owners still earned a lot of points for a modest investment. This team has been remarkably consistent all season and Truex's past six races have all ended in results of fifth through 17th. In fact, all but one of those results was a top-15. The same is true of his career at Darlington. In four previous starts there, he's swept the top 15 with a best result of sixth last year; considering that first through fifth all went to Hendrick-affiliated teams, that is all the more impressive.

Mark Martin won this race last year in convincing fashion and if that was the only consideration, he would be a favorite this week. He hasn't shown the same raw power as he did in 2009, however, and his '07/'08 Darlington attempts ended in results outside the top 10. Still, his worst effort during the past seven attempts netted a 16th-place finish in '08, which means he's been more hit than miss since '04.

Gordon, Johnson, Hamlin, Kenseth, Burton, Truex and Martin make up the list of racers with four consecutive top-16s, but there are two others you will want to watch closely this weekend. When a rookie runs well at Darlington, it often means he will continue to do so and last year was a great time for young guns. Brad Keselowski finished seventh in '09 and barely edged out Joey Logano's ninth for top freshman honors. For them, this could be the beginning of a Johnson-like career at Darlington, so you will want to hop on the bandwagon while there is still room.

Fantasy Power Ranking
Darlington Raceway (past three years)
Pos.   Driver   PA*       Pos.   Driver   PA*       Pos.   Driver   PA*
1.   Jeff Gordon   5.42       16.   Kurt Busch   16.56       31.   Robby Gordon   30.80
2.   Jimmie Johnson   6.14       17.   Jeff Burton   16.62       32.   David Gilliland   31.67
3.   Greg Biffle   6.65       18.   Jamie McMurray   18.03       33.   Reed Sorenson   31.68
4.   Joey Logano   7.89       19.   Clint Bowyer   19.10       34.   Mike Bliss   31.75
5.   Denny Hamlin   9.33       20.   Kevin Harvick   19.64       35.   Juan Montoya   31.83
6.   Martin Truex Jr.   9.63       21.   Travis Kvapil   20.18       36.   Paul Menard   32.08
7.   Matt Kenseth   10.00       22.   David Ragan   23.27       37.   Joe Nemechek   32.25
8.   Brad Keselowski   10.44       23.   David Reutimann   25.13       38.   Regan Smith   34.75
9.   Kyle Busch   10.60       24.   Bobby Labonte   25.16       39.   A.J. Allmendinger   35.79
10.   Ryan Newman   10.91       25.   Dave Blaney   25.16       40.   Tony Raines   36.05
11.   Dale Earnhardt Jr.   11.97       26.   Elliott Sadler   26.00       41.   Marcos Ambrose   36.38
12.   Tony Stewart   12.06       27.   Casey Mears   27.16       42.   Michael McDowell   37.38
13.   Carl Edwards   12.23       28.   Brian Vickers   27.66       43.   Scott Speed   38.44
14.   Kasey Kahne   13.88       29.   Sam Hornish Jr.   29.75       44.   Scott Speed   38.44
15.   Mark Martin   14.12       30.   David Stremme   30.00       45.   Max Papis   41.38
* The Power Average is the average finish during the past three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second-most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. A driver's recent record in the support series also is factored in, as is his Average Running Position as provided by NASCAR Statistical Services. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).
• Darlington Raceway is one of NASCAR's truly unique tracks and has no comparative.

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Darlington perfect place for Biffle to get back on track
By Official Release
May 5, 2010
04:48 PM EDT

Greg Biffle began the 2010 season with the vengeance of a man with something to prove.

Though he made the 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup, he ended the season winless, seventh in the final standings. His absence from Victory Lane was the most surprising part. He previously had won at least one race in six consecutive seasons.

His best '09 finish was third, three times (Texas, Dover and Kansas). He matched that top finish immediately in 2010, finishing third in the Daytona 500 (his career-best finish in the 500). Biffle then reeled off five more top-10 runs, becoming the first driver since Jimmie Johnson in '05 to start a season with six consecutive top-10s.

But then the hiccup came. Since the string of top-10s to start 2010, Biffle has finished outside the top 10 in three of four races. The "slump" has caused Biffle to drop a bit in the series standings, from second after Martinsville to his current fifth-place position.

Biffle: 2010 Race Log
Track   Finish   Driver Rating       Track   Finish   Driver Rating
Daytona   3   111.0       Martinsville   10   71.9
Fontana   10   90.6       Phoenix   22   60.9
Las Vegas   10   103.6       Texas   10   96.2
Atlanta   8   94.3       Talladega   17   74.2
Bristol   4   119.7       Richmond   22   57.7
• Average: Finish -- 11.6; Driver Rating -- 88.0

But a welcome challenge, egg-shaped and quick, arrives this weekend. Biffle excels at Darlington Raceway like no other track. His overall Driver Rating there, 123.1, makes Darlington his best track in terms of Loop Data statistics.

Biffle has two victories at Darlington, in 2005 and '06, and scored some of the top statistics produced there since the inception of Loop Data in '05. Since 2005 at Darlington, Biffle has an Average Running Position of 7.6 (third-best), a series-high 251 Fastest Laps Run, a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 89 (second) and 157 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), which is fourth-most. His Driver Rating of 123.1 is a series best.

Darlington: Average Running Position (best / single race)
Pos.   Driver   Date   Avg. Run. Pos.
1.   Greg Biffle   May 2006   2.458
2.   Greg Biffle   May 2005   2.581
3.   Denny Hamlin   May 2007   3.041
4.   Kasey Kahne   May 2005   3.103
5.   Dale Earnhardt Jr.   May 2008   3.842

Darlington: Driver Rating (best / single race)
Pos.   Driver   Date   Driver Rating
1.   Greg Biffle   May 2005   144.4
2.   Greg Biffle   May 2006   143.1
3.   Kyle Busch   May 2008   138.6
4.   Denny Hamlin   May 2007   137.6
5.   Greg Biffle   May 2009   128.3
But it hasn't all been joyous at Darlington for the Roush Fenway Racing driver. In 2008, Biffle finished 43rd, a rarity in his successful eight-plus year career.

Biffle has finished last only four times: New Hampshire in 2003, Charlotte in '07, and Darlington and Daytona in 08.

Thrown for a Loop

The statistics suggest Darlington might be a tough one to predict. The past two races there were won by drivers who ranked outside the top 10 in pre-race Driver Rating.

Last season, Mark Martin ranked 12th; in 2008, Kyle Busch ranked 13th. The 12th- and 13th-ranked drivers this year in pre-race Driver Rating: Kasey Kahne (91.6) and Matt Kenseth (91.2).


Courtesy of:  nascar.com

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Stars and stripes: Drivers put on show at Darlington
By NASCAR.COM
May 6, 2010
11:38 AM EDT

Race No. 11 -- Showtime Southern 500 from Darlington Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX). Green at 7:45 p.m. ET.

.002 -- Margin of victory in March 2003 as Ricky Craven beat Kurt Busch. It's the closest Cup Series race in the electronic timing era (1993). Craven rolled off 31st, the worst starting position of any winner in a spring race at Darlington. It was the only lap Craven led. Six of the past nine spring races at Darlington have a margin of victory of less than 1 second.

1 -- Green-white-checkered finishes at Darlington, in 2005. Greg Biffle needed four more miles and three additional laps to close out the victory.

3 -- Poles for Kasey Kahne in his first four starts at Darlington. He has started in the top 10 in five of his seven races there. He finished no worse than 13th in his first three starts, including two top-fives, but has finished 21st, 20th, 22nd and 23rd in his past four races there, including being a lap down three times.

5 -- Times the winner of the Southern 500 led 300 or more laps, but none since September 1971 when Bobby Allison led 329. The most laps led by a 500 winner since was 277 by Harry Gant in Sept. '84.

6 -- Consecutive top-five finishes at Darlington for Jeff Gordon, including five consecutive top-threes before finishing fifth last year. He has finished in the top three in more than 50 percent of his races at Darlington (16 of 29), including seven victories (six in the Southern 500).

9 -- Top-10 finishes in 11 career starts at Darlington for Jimmie Johnson. He has six top-fives, including two victories (the last season sweep in 2004) and his 6.9 average finish is the best among any driver with more than two starts there.

11 -- Times the winner of the Southern 500 at Darlington went on to win the Cup championship. Jeff Gordon has done it the most (1995, '97, '98). The most recent driver to do so was Bobby Labonte in 2000.


11 -- Southern 500 races where the final lead change occurred with 10 or fewer laps. It's happened 16 times with 20 or fewer laps. There only has been five last-lap passes for the victory and just one in the Southern 500 -- LeeRoy Yarbrough beat David Pearson in September 1969.

17 -- Cautions in last year's race at Darlington, the most in track history. The 73 laps under caution were the most since September 1995 (94).

93 -- Races at Darlington, out of 106, won from a top-10 starting position. Nineteen have been won from the pole, but none since March 1997 (Dale Jarrett). The last Southern 500 won from the pole was September '90 (Dale Earnhardt).

639 -- Laps led by Greg Biffle in the past 10 races at Darlington, most of any driver during that span. Biffle has done it in just nine races. Five times he has led 70 or more laps in a race there, including a race-high 117 last year. He led 176 and 170 laps in posting back-to-back victories in 2005 and '06.

179.514 -- Track qualifying record, in mph, set by Matt Kenseth in last year's race, breaking the previous mark of 179.442 mph by Greg Biffle in 2008. The best speed before that was set in March 1996 by Jeff Gordon (173.797 mph).

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Harvick's points lead not likely to hold at Darlington
By Sporting News Wire Service
May 6, 2010
03:52 PM EDT

Here's a look at the top five drivers in the Sprint Cup Series standings and five drivers to watch in Saturday's Showtime Southern 500 (7:30 p.m. ET on FOX). All statistical references are for Cup races at Darlington Raceway unless otherwise indicated. Driver Rating is based on the past five races at the track.

The top five


1. Kevin Harvick, 76.9 Driver Rating -- Harvick finished third last week at Richmond for his third consecutive top-10, but he hasn't finished in the top 10 at Darlington in six years. His four top-10s came in his first seven starts. In the six starts since, his finishes are, in order: 32nd, 14th, 37th, 17th, 39th, 11th. If you believe in patterns, Harvick won't be leading the Cup standings after Saturday night's race.

2. Jimmie Johnson, 112.1 -- Darlington is another strong track for Johnson, who has two victories in 11 starts and a 6.9 average finish. He finished second last year for his ninth top-10 (sixth top-five).

3. Kyle Busch, 96.2 -- Busch won his first race of the season last week at Richmond. He won two years ago at Darlington for his only top-five in five starts. The victory is nestled between finishes of 37th and 34th.

4. Matt Kenseth, 91.2 -- Kenseth started from the pole last year, which was a shocker for two reasons: First, because he started in the 30s in the previous four races at the track; and second, because you can count Kenseth's career poles on one hand. He has four. You have to go to October 2005 to find his third. Getting to the front at Darlington hasn't been a problem, though. He is working on a stretch of four top-10s. Kenseth is winless in 16 starts.

5. Greg Biffle, 123.1 -- Biffle loves Darlington. He has two victories in nine starts and has led the most laps in three of the past five races. He dominates even when he finishes last: In 2008, Biffle led 95 of the first 233 laps and was in first when his engine blew. He has led more laps at Darlington than at any other Cup track.

Five to watch

6. Jeff Gordon, 114.4 -- In terms of victories, Gordon's two best tracks are Darlington and Martinsville with seven wins at each. Gordon has been close to winning repeatedly this year, including last week at Richmond when he finished second. He likely will be in the mix again: Of his 20 top-10s in 29 starts, 17 are top-five finishes including the past six races.


7. Denny Hamlin, 102.7 -- Hamlin has three top-10s in four starts, and his other finish was 13th. He led the most laps in 2007 (179) when he finished second to Gordon. Hamlin is driving very well right now, and with every passing race, he becomes further removed from his knee surgery.

9. Jeff Burton, 85.1 -- Although Burton is winless in 2010, he has had the cars to get to Victory Lane. Mistakes have held back the No. 31 team. If he brings another fast car to Darlington, he'll know what to do with it. He has two victories and 15 top-10s in 29 starts. His 11.5 average finish is better at only Las Vegas and Phoenix.

14. Martin Truex Jr., 96.8 -- Darlington is a big race for Truex, who steadily has moved up the standings since dropping to 24th after the fourth race of the season. He is 17 points behind 12th place Clint Bowyer, and moving into the top 12 would be a big boost for the first-year Michael Waltrip Racing driver. History is with Truex at Darlington. He led 61 laps last year en route to a sixth-place finish, his first top-10 after finishes of 14th twice and 11th.

16. Ryan Newman, 100.7 -- Newman is winless at Darlington but has a strong record with seven finishes of sixth or better in 11 starts. He led 48 laps last year and finished fourth, his sixth top-five. Newman, like Truex, has rebounded from a slow start. He trails Bowyer by 71 points, and Darlington is an opportunity to make up some more ground.



Who's Hot / Who's Not
Hot
• Kyle Busch has posted top-10 finishes in the past four races, the longest active streak.
• Kevin Harvick has posted top-10 finishes in the past three races; he's one of three drivers (Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle) with seven top-10s this season.
• Jeff Gordon has finished third or better in three of the past five races; he's led 599 laps in 2010, most among all drivers.
• Defending Darlington winner Mark Martin has posted four of his top-fives this season on speedways.
• A Chevrolet has won six of the first 10 races this season.
Not
• Jimmie Johnson has lost 118 points in the past two races, dropping from the biggest lead of the season (after Texas) to second (-10).
• RCR has two drivers of winless streaks of 50 races or more: Clint Bowyer (72) and Jeff Burton (51).
• Brian Vickers has not posted a finish better than 16th in his seven races at Darlington; he's finished 16th or worse five times this season, including the past four.
• Kasey Kahne has finished 20th or worse in his past four races at Darlington; he's finished 20th or worse in six starts this season.
• Eight drivers have made all 10 starts this seaspm without a top-10 finish: Brad Keselowski (best finish of 12th), Sam Hornish Jr. (13th), Robby Gordon (14th), Regan Smith (14th), Travis Kvapil (18th), Elliott Sadler (18th), Bobby Labonte (21st) and Joe Nemechek (38th).

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