UK Best Bet Betting and Poker Forum
Pocono tends to favor those who favor flat tracksBy Dan Beaver, Special to NASCAR.COM
June 2, 2010
01:25 PM EDT
If Pocono Raceway looks like a track built by committee, that is because, in a sense, it was. Built to pay tribute to three of the most popular IndyCar tracks of its day, each corner and each straightaway of this triangular track is different.
Turn 1 was patterned after the mile-and-a-half Trenton Speedway. It has the greatest slope of banking at 14 degrees and drivers need as much help as possible to help them turn after winding up the horsepower down a 3,740-foot frontstretch.
The next challenge comes at the end of a 3,055-foot straightaway and with only 8 degrees of banking to catch the car, this might be the most challenging corner NASCAR drivers face. It should be legendary, because that straight was patterned after Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Once the drivers survive the Tunnel Turn, they have to tiptoe through Turn 3 and its 6 degrees of banking. It's the flattest corner NASCAR faces now that the Nationwide Series no longer visits the track for which it is patterned -- The Milwaukee Mile.
One might think a track this unique is without comparison, but fantasy owners will find that drivers who run well on the other flat tracks -- particularly those of 1-mile in length and greater -- also run well at Pocono. Look to Indy, Phoenix and New Hampshire for help when setting this week's roster. To a lesser degree, Richmond and Martinsville also will be predictive.
The FavoritesDenny Hamlin's reputation as a flat-track master has taken a little bit of a beating in the last year and a half. Slowed by surgery and mechanical gremlins, he limped to a 36th-place finish at Phoenix in the last trip to this track type. In this race last year, he also had mechanical problems that caused him to finish 38th, but Pocono still is one of his favorite tracks. He swept Victory Lane there in his rookie season and rebounded from his spring disappointment with another victory in Pocono's second race of 2009. Discounting Phoenix, he's finished first, second or third in his past five flat-track attempts and that is enough to make him a favorite this week.
If Hamlin seems like an obvious pick, Tony Stewart may be less so. He's struggled in recent weeks, but there are two big reasons to favor him at Pocono. First, he's one of a less than a handful of drivers who swept the top 10 last year -- in fact, he's finished that well in eight of his past nine efforts on this track -- and his victory in this race last year gives him momentum. Summer also is the time of year he typically comes to life. Two trips to Pocono and one to the similarly flat Indy track are a big part of the reason for this mystique.
Jeff Gordon rounds out this week's favorites. With four Pocono victories and five more runner-up results, this always has been one of his best tracks and with an average finish of 10.0 in 34 starts, it currently ranks as his seventh most successful active course. Two venues on which he's been statistically better are the banking-challenged courses of Martinsville (6.7 in 35 starts) and Indy (8.6 in 16 starts), which makes him a flat-track master. Last week at Charlotte, Gordon stayed out during a late-race caution and could not keep up with the top-five drivers on old tires, but that gamble demonstrates the team's commitment to winning -- and Pocono is a perfect place to get his first victory of 2010.
Dark HorsesJuan Montoya is giving us a lot of gray hair. As soon as fantasy owners are willing to take a risk on the No. 42, Montoya either makes a mistake or gets collected by someone else's error and that makes him a dicey proposition. His Pocono record also offers an unclear perspective. He failed to crack the top 15 in his first four attempts on the triangular oddity, but last year he swept the top 10 and nearly won the the second race of the season there before settling for second.
With several accidents this year, Sam Hornish Jr. is a true underdog, but the flat tracks are where he seems to be most comfortable. He has two victories at Phoenix and an Indy 500 win to his credit in the Indy Racing League and recently, he's recorded the lion's share of his Cup top-10s on this track type. Last year, he swept the top 10 at Pocono with a 10th in this race and a fourth when the series returned in August. His past three flat-track victories have ranged from 13th to 18th, but that still is a pretty good bang for his salary-cap bucks.
UnderdogsIt's hard to know which Carl Edwards will show up on the flat tracks. The minimally banked courses have not been overly kind to any of the Roush Fenway Racing drivers, but that hasn't kept Edwards from winning Pocono twice. His first victory came in his inaugural attempt in 2005 and he followed that with a fourth in the second race. He won again in '08 and then followed that with a second-place result in this race last year. Keep a close eye on him in practice and if he's at the top of those charts, he could be worth the risk.
During the past three years, Clint Bowyer has been one of the steadiest drivers in Cup competition at Pocono and that also makes him a driver to watch. He was slowed by crash damage in the 2008 edition of this race, but that is the only time since '07 he finished worse than 12th at Pocono. In the latest race run there, he finished third and with only Hamlin and Montoya ahead of him, he was in pretty heady company.
Fantasy Power Ranking
Flat tracks (past three years)Pos. Driver PA* Pos. Driver PA* Pos. Driver PA*
1. Jimmie Johnson 5.21 17. Juan Montoya 17.88 32. J.J. Yeley 28.33
2. Jeff Gordon 6.76 18. Kasey Kahne 18.27 33. Sam Hornish Jr. 29.51
3. Mark Martin 7.78 19. Casey Mears 20.34 34. Elliott Sadler 29.66
4. Denny Hamlin 8.65 20. Brad Keselowski 20.68 35. Travis Kvapil 30.41
5. Tony Stewart 8.85 21. Jamie McMurray 21.72 36. David Gilliland 31.34
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 11.48 22. Brian Vickers 21.83 37. Mike Bliss 31.74
7. Carl Edwards 11.91 23. David Reutimann 22.70 38. Dave Blaney 33.20
8. Kyle Busch 13.06 24. Marcos Ambrose 23.18 39. Paul Menard 33.25
9. Jeff Burton 13.25 25. Joey Logano 24.64 40. Scott Speed 33.31
10. Ryan Newman 14.13 26. Reed Sorenson 25.42 41. Regan Smith 33.48
11. Clint Bowyer 14.36 27. David Ragan 25.91 42. Robby Gordon 33.75
12. Kurt Busch 15.17 28. A.J. Allmendinger 26.11 43. Kevin Conway 33.91
13. Martin Truex Jr. 15.25 29. Bobby Labonte 26.23 44. Michael McDowell 35.25
14. Kevin Harvick 15.57 30. Todd Bodine 28.00 45. Max Papis 36.18
15. Greg Biffle 16.10 31. David Stremme 28.02 46. Joe Nemechek 37.25
16. Matt Kenseth 16.91
* The Power Average is the average finish during the past three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. A driver's recent record in the support series is also factored in, as is his average running position as provided by NASCAR Statistical Services. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).• The flat tracks are Pocono, Indianapolis, Phoenix, New Hampshire and Martinsville.Courtesy of: nascar.com
